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ETRM Book 2
Untitled Document
Selecting and
Implementing
Energy Trading,
Transaction and
Risk Management
Software

– A Primer –
Authored & Edited by
Patrick Reames
and Dr. GM Vasey
Sponsored by Deloitte,
Sapient and Structure
ETRM Book
Untitled Document
Trends in Energy
Trading,
Transaction &
Risk Management
Software

– A Primer –
Edited by
Dr. GM Vasey
and Andrew Bruce
Sponsored by Allegro and SAS/RiskAdvisory

Ranting about Gasoline Prices

Filed under: Natural Gas, Energy, CommoditiesPatrick Reames | May 22, 2008 @ 5:08 pm (Views: 661)

The Senate Judiciary Committee has been holding hearing and taking dead aim at the executives of the big oil companies. These senators are demanding an explanation as to why gasoline prices are so high. And no, don’t even think about hiding behind some lame explanation of the forces of supply and demand. These senators know that’s nothing but a smokescreen for something nefarious! These guys are mad as hell and I’m right there with ‘em!! I’m sick and tired of these giant oil companies sucking my credit card dry at the gas pump to the tune of $100 a week!! They’re making obscene profits off me just because I drive a big Ford pickup. Who the hell do they think they are!! Shut them down!! Nationalize the oil fields!! Tax them out of existence!!! Throw their employees out of work!! Light the torches and grab your pitch forks!! We’re heading west on I-10 and taking our revenge!!! Come on Everyone!!!! LEEETTTTSSS GOOOOOO!!!

Wait a minute...I should probably take a deep breath and think this through...

The oil markets are global. The Chinese, the Russians, the Japanese and the British are all bidding on the same barrel of crude and there’s nothing that ExxonMobil or ConocoPhillips or ChevronTexaco can do about that. Well, for the sake of folks like me who enjoy driving a V8 powered truck, I guess they could tell their stockholders that they are becoming a charity and are giving away their profits to subsidize reduced gasoline prices for all Americans. Problem is, they can’t. Their stockholders would throw out these executives and replace them with less charitable ones. And who are these evil stockholders? They’re retirees, average working stiffs, school districts, pension funds, mutual funds and more than a few senators and representatives. Corporate profits accrue to stockholders. Even if the stockholders agreed to have their dividends and capital gains given away, it wouldn’t last long. Eventually these companies would go out of business as they would have no capital with which to find additional reserves to replace what they produced to supply us with slightly cheaper fuel.

Back to the global market point...the major domestic oil companies aren’t even making the majority of their money off of us in the US. These are global companies and most of their production and sales revenues come from other countries. Our US based oil companies are competing with the likes of BP, Total, Aramco, Shell, AGIP, Petrobras, Pemex, PDVSA (Venezuela’s state oil company) and China National Petroleum. Each of these companies are competing for new reserves and realizing the same prices for their production and refined products. And while they are in fierce competition with each other, they are also in the enviable position of owning a scarce resource that is in high demand. And there is nothing that anyone, including our congress, can do to change that - or is there?

We Americans are, by far, the largest per capita consumers of petroleum products in the world. In fact, we consume about 40% of all the gasoline produced in the world. We are our own enemy. We’ve bought big cars that burn lots of gasoline and have moved to the suburbs, requiring us to drive 30 miles every morning to get to work and 30 miles every evening to get back home. We’ve grown comfortable and complacent. We expect plentiful energy at cheap prices. Unfortunately, we’ve lost control of our own destiny. We have outstripped our ability to supply our own energy needs and have had to turn to the rest of the world to keep our cars running back and forth from home to office. The US now imports 2/3 of our crude oil needs. We are price takers. The world is setting our price for crude and all the products derived from it that we rely on every day.

And, yet, we yell and scream and whine and complain like a bunch of 4 year olds; demanding that someone change the reality. We want to blame everyone else but ourselves. As the Associated Press noted about the hearings, “One senator after another cited the pain that high energy prices are causing...people trying to find a way to afford a vacation trip this summer.” So people can’t afford to jump into the WagonQueen Family Truckster and haul Russ, Audrey and Aunt Edna across the country to Wallyworld. Sorry. Stay home and play soccer with the kids. Take in the local attractions. Run through the sprinkler in your back yard. Yeah, it sucks you can’t afford Wallyworld this year. And I’m sorry to sound snarky, but you know what; it’s not the fault of the president of ExxonMobil.

It's the fault of every one of us. If high prices force us to leave the Truckster in the driveway this summer, so be it. We’ll use less gasoline and get to spend some time with the family at home. And after being driven insane by the kids, maybe we’ll get angry enough to call our congressmen and demand that they start to develop a real energy policy, one that reflects the reality of a diminishing resource and the need to replace it with something more sustainable. Demand that they develop a policy that embraces nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, and cellulous based ethanol. If they continue wasting time railing on oil execs and asking how much money they make, things are going to get a lot worse.

I never thought I would say this, but I’m beginning to believe that maybe we should increase the taxes on gasoline. It would have the positive result of reducing consumption and generating some revenue that could be used to develop the alternative sources of energy that we are going to need in the coming years. If we continue to waste our time moaning and complaining about all the hurt we’re feeling and crafting fables about how J R Ewing-like oil executives are trying to drain us dry, we are going to be in much worse shape in the future when the price of oil goes to $500/barrel and gasoline costs $20/gallon, if you can even find it.

7 Comments

  1. Comment by steunenber:

  2. Comment by Patrick Reames:

    Johan - Are you thinking I may have leaned a little left at the end? I really need to watch out for that :)

  3. Comment by steunenber:

    Don’t worry. You’re just using your brains, and that’s OK. And you’re still a conservative, as you’re not that interested in the consequences for the underpriviliged. Don’t you worry.

    Still, your train of thought starts with a rather sarcastic neo-classical analyses, but then you switch to some community-type viewpoint. ‘we’ve lost control of our own destiny’ You now, in the Adam Smith world, the ‘we’ is not that important. The ‘we’ is taken care of by the wonderful miracle called market.

    This ‘we’ perspective is getting more and more important. I recently heard , and she is very much occupied with energy security from national points of view. A very interesting woman. In Germany we have the discussions on please not becoming dependend on russian gas.

    And then you switch to the ‘raise taxes to get money for R&D to get the USA on a sustainable path. You on’t even mention ‘market’. That’s where I start to grin.

    There is an interesting book by an american law scholar, David M. Driesen, ‘The Economic Dynamics of Environmental Law’. I think he might be very inspiring in this area.

    And regarding the taxes: the green party in Germany once lost elections because they proposed a 5DM/Liter price for gasoline. Every now and then I find myself arguing with someone, that does not want to say that we need higer energy prices. I’m member of an organisation of green businesses, Unternehmensgrün, and I want that organisation to spread a view that energy is not expensive enough. And they don’t want to, they are still traumatised by that election results. And now, the right wing comes with this brilliant idea

  4. Comment by steunenber:

    I meant: I recently heard Coby van der Linden

    Sorry for my bad html

  5. Comment by Patrick Reames:

    While I would take umbrage with your characterization that I am “not that interested in the consequences for the underprivileged”, and I agree that the post is definitely sarcastic (as I said myself “snarky”), I hope my point was not lost that I want this (however small and insignificant my forum might be) to be a “call to action”, as this is a situation that requires people to make substantive changes for themselves. It not a time to blame others and seek punishment for perceived crimes. There is no crime, there is the MARKET – with all the good and bad that comes with it.

    Yes, the market will sort this out if WE don’t start making changes in our energy consumption – both the sources and the usage. The forces of supply and demand will dictate that prices will continue to escalate to the point that instead of just worrying about how to afford a family vacation; more and more people will begin to worry about how to afford food when they can’t travel to work because of the cost of fuel.

    As a guy with a somewhat “conservative” view of things, I believe that individuals have a responsibility to make, and seek to influence, the changes necessary in order to ensure their own well being. And really, that’s my point with this rant – people better make the necessary changes and sacrifices in their lifestyles now, as painful as they may be, or the market is going to make them for us in a much more painful manner. People need to understand there is no boogie man that can be slain to make all the bad stuff go away.

    Of course, raising taxes in order to influence behaviors is a topic fraught with contradictions for both you and me. If your push to raise taxes in Germany were successful, the people most impacted would be the underprivileged, just as they would be here if we raise the gas tax. I don’t know what to do about that. I don’t like tax increases in any form, especially when they are intended to influence behavior. But I have to acknowledge that we continue to waste time and dollars trying to maintain an un-maintainable lifestyle built around cheap energy – we are the “frog in the sauce pan” and heat is being turned up. If we don’t do something to change our behaviors, the outcome will not be pretty.

  6. Comment by steunenber:

    I agree. Fully.

    There are a few interesting theoretical points here that make me chew on this issue.

    One issue is called ‘market failure’ by neoclassical scholars or ‘local optimum’ in optimization algorithms. And what to do to get to a more global optimum. This is where your tax proposal comes effective.

    Another issue is the ‘we’ vs. ‘I’. I’m quite afraid that the way the ‘we’ gets more important won’t make the world more secure. The people in OECD countries probably won’t have enough fuel to drive, but we could afford the investment in bsses or trains. In third world countries oil is the only portable fuel, not only for cars, but also for off-grid generation, cooking and light. The impact of exploding oil prices will be more heavy there.

    And excuse me for the ‘not that interested’ part. I don’t want to suggest, that you as a person are not interested in the underprivileged, but that this aspect was not a part of your argumentation.

    I don’t know, but maybe we could use the huge taxes on energy use also to help the underprivileged to get rid of energy spoiling appliances.

    By the way: we should not forget about the power of regulatory law. The japanese are successfull with that in getting nergy efficient appliences to market. The IEA study ‘Mind the Gap’ discusses many strategies to resolve principal agent problems, but none is so successfull as this simple japanese law. And law comes next to market when we shift the focus from ‘I’ to ‘we’.

  7. Pingback by ETRM Software Community - ETRM Blog » Updates and Additional Thoughts:

    […] And finally, though not an IssueAlert article, I recently wrote in the ETRMCommunity Blog, this posting, Ranting about Gasoline Prices, in which I discussed, in somewhat colorful terms, the American appetite for imported oil and the perception that US oil companies were gouging the public. Included in that screed was a note that it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing if we stayed out of our cars this summer and spent our time closer to home. My not too subtle (and certainly not unique) implication was that unless the US consumers took positive action, including leaving their cars in their driveways this summer, we are going to continue to see high prices. […]

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