OpenLink Financial filed their S-1 yesterday, indicating that they intend to make a public offering of their stock from which they expect to raise $200 million.

By being first out of the gate, OpenLink is well positioned for success with this offering. Having been the first of the major ETRM software houses to exceed the $100 million mark in revenue, they have the gravity to approach the open market. In fact, their S-1 indicates that for the full year 2007, they booked almost $137 million vs. about $84 million in 2006, a 66% year over year increase.

This offering will be closely watched by the other leading ETRM vendors. As we’ve noted in the past, 4 of the top 5 vendors are now venture funded to some extent, with the outlier, SunGard Energy being held by a private concern that is rumored to be nearing the point of spinning out parts of the SunGard family to the public market. The question of the day for these other vendors is “Is there enough of a near-term appetite in the market to support an IPO by more than one ETRM/CTRM system vendor?” By being first, OpenLink has potentially shut the IPO door to the other vendors for the rest of the year.

With near parity in terms of overall market share amongst the other top 3 or 4 vendors, and with each nearing the $100 million revenue mark, the calculus that takes place on whether and when to make the move will very interesting to watch. This is not a huge market place, and while times have been good for the last couple of years, there are indications that the market for new energy trading systems may be starting to top out. For these other vendors, going out sooner than later may be difficult if they can’t post revenues above the magic $100 million mark. However, waiting for an extended period adds additional risks to the equation and none of these vendors will want to be 3rd or 4th to the IPO game.

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